A recent statement by outgoing African Development Bank (AfDB) President, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, suggesting that Nigerians are worse off today than in 1960 has sparked scrutiny, particularly due to discrepancies in the economic data he cited.
According to reports, Dr. Adesina claimed that Nigeria’s GDP per capita was $1,847 in 1960 and is now $824, painting a picture of economic regression. However, available data contradicts these figures.
Historical records show that in 1960, Nigeria’s total GDP stood at $4.2 billion, with a population of 44.9 million, resulting in a GDP per capita of just $93. Significant growth only began in the 1970s with the oil boom, pushing GDP to $12.5 billion in 1970, and reaching $64.2 billion by 1980. It wasn’t until 1981 that per capita income crossed the $2,000 mark, peaking at $3,200 in 2014 after economic rebasing.
These inconsistencies cast doubt on the data Dr. Adesina used, but more importantly, raise concerns about his conclusion. GDP per capita is a limited and often misleading metric for assessing the standard of living.
“GDP does not reflect income distribution, informal economic activities, or access to essential services such as healthcare, education, or transportation,” experts argue.
Indeed, modern Nigeria enjoys far broader access to these services compared to 1960. At independence, there were only 18,724 telephone lines for a population of 45 million. Today, over 200 million Nigerians have access to mobile phones and digital services. The educational sector has expanded significantly, with more institutions across all levels. The healthcare sector has grown in both reach and complexity, and transportation networks, including rail and air travel, have seen dramatic improvements.
GDP also fails to account for the informal economy, which is widely believed to surpass the formal sector in size. This was exemplified in the early 2000s when Vodacom declined to enter the Nigerian market based on GDP-based assessments—only to watch MTN and others achieve explosive growth. Today, MTN alone boasts 84 million subscribers and posted ₦1 trillion in revenue in Q1 2025, a testament to Nigeria’s expanding consumer economy.
“It’s inaccurate and unhelpful to compare today’s Nigeria to 1960 solely using GDP metrics. The broader indicators of human development and technological advancement reveal a country that has made substantial progress,” analysts note.
As Nigeria awaits the recalibration of its GDP by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), early estimates suggest today’s economy is at least 50 to 100 times larger than it was at independence.
While constructive criticism is essential, it must be grounded in factual, holistic analysis. A singular focus on selective GDP data risks ignoring the complex and often inspiring evolution of Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape.