By Rt. Hon. Linus Okorie, FCA
Nigeria is a country where power rarely changes hands by sentiment alone. It moves by strategy, structure, timing, and cold political arithmetic. Every zone that has successfully produced a president understood this truth early enough—and acted accordingly.
For the Southeast, the question before us today is no longer whether we deserve the presidency. That argument has been won, rehearsed, and exhausted. The real question is this:
what is the most realistic pathway to actualising it—and within what time frame?
This is not an emotional question.
It is a strategic one.
Understanding the APC Pathway: The Long Queue
When the pathway to power under the ruling party is laid out visually; as a timeline rather than as slogans, the implications become stark.
Under the APC, the prevailing expectation is as follows:
* President Bola Tinubu completes a second term: 2027–2031
* Power returns to the North for two full terms: 2031–2039
* Power then returns to the South in 2039, with two possible claimants:
* the Southsouth, or
* the Southeast
This is where strategic realism must replace wishful thinking.
A sober, factor-by-factor assessment; such as incumbent loyalty, financial muscle, strategic economic and security value, and perceived national electability, shows that the Southsouth currently holds significant structural advantages within the APC.
The Southsouth:
* Commands vast oil-based financial resources,
* Occupies critical strategic and security relevance to the Nigerian state,
* Has led the factionalization and weakening of the PDP from a formidable opposition party to a rudderless incoherent leftover in disarray to benefit the incumbent,
* And, crucially, has recently aligned decisively with the incumbent power structure through defections and political realignments in support of the current administration.
When these factors are weighted objectively—as shown in the accompanying graphic analysis—the probability of the APC nominating a Southsouth presidential candidate in 2039 far outweighs that of the Southeast.
Equity, though frequently invoked, has rarely been decisive in Nigeria’s actual power transitions. History reminds us that the Southwest produced a president from 1999–2007, a vice president from 2015–2023, and has held the presidency again since 2023. Moral symmetry did not override political advantage.
If the Southsouth secures the APC ticket in 2039, the Southeast’s turn is deferred yet again—this time until 2055. Even if it doesn’t, the Southeast still had to wait for 12 years from 2027 to clinch the APC Presidential ticket.
That is not rhetoric; it is arithmetic.
From 2027 to 2055 is a 28-year wait.
This is by no means an indictment of the APC, nor a dismissal of its supporters in the Southeast who push for Tinubu’s reelection and adoption by the Southeast. It is simply a recognition of political realities as they exist today, and clearly illustrated when the pathway is mapped as a timeline rather than spoken of in abstractions.
The ADC Alternative: Compressing Time, Reducing Risk
Now contrast this with the pathway offered by the African Democratic Congress (ADC), when similarly laid out on a timeline.
Under the ADC, the Southeast is not a peripheral consideration. It is central to the coalition’s logic and future.
Three realistic scenarios emerge:
1. ADC fields a Southeast presidential candidate in 2027
– Waiting time: Zero years
– Immediate actualisation of a Nigerian President of Southeast extraction.
2. ADC presents a North–Southeast ticket for one term (2027–2031); with a clearly affirmed handover to the Southeast
– Waiting time: 4 years.
3. ADC adopts a two-term North–Southeast arrangement (2027–2035); with a structured and acknowledged transition
– Waiting time: 8 years.
When these options are displayed graphically; side by side with the APC pathway, the contrast is unmistakable:
* APC pathway: 12 to 28 years of waiting, depending on internal outcomes beyond Southeast control.
* ADC pathway: 0 to 8 years, with far greater clarity and predictability.
This is what it means to compress political time.
In strategic terms, ADC reduces uncertainty and shortens political latency. It converts aspiration into a near-term possibility rather than a distant hope.
Why This Matters to Every Stratum of the Southeast
For the Youths of the Southeast, this is existential. Politics delayed is opportunity denied. A generation that has waited decades cannot afford another indefinite queue whose end keeps shifting.
For political and business elites, the calculation is equally clear. Capital, political or economic, flows toward predictability. A pathway that offers clarity within a known time horizon is more bankable than one stretched across decades of uncertainty.
For the diaspora, whose emotional and financial investments in the homeland remain strong, the issue is leverage. Influence is maximised when timing aligns with opportunity, not when it is postponed indefinitely.
And for party actors and insiders, history offers a consistent lesson: regions that secure power do so by aligning early, negotiating clearly, and acting collectively; not by remaining in long queues governed by forces beyond their control.
A Call for Strategic Maturity
This is not a call to abandon principles.
It is a call to marry principle with strategy.
The Southeast must move beyond reactive politics and embrace deliberate, data-informed decision-making. We must ask not only what is just, but also what is achievable; and within what time frame.
The presidency of Nigeria is not awarded for patience alone. It is secured through clarity of purpose, unity of direction, and strategic timing.
The choice before us, therefore, is not about parties in isolation.
It is about pathways. It is about time.
And ultimately, it is about whether we choose sentiment or strategy.
History will judge us—not by the strength of our complaints—but by the wisdom of our choices.
Rt. Hon. Linus Okorie, FCA
Former Member, House of Representatives
(#TheSenatorForAll)
